The escalating tensions between India-Pak are anticipated to cast a shadow over advertising expenditure (AdEx) in India, with industry sources predicting a potential dip of 5-10% in the first half of 2025. As geopolitical uncertainty grips the nation, brands are reportedly hitting pause on high-visibility media campaigns, adopting a cautious “wait-and-watch” approach.
Advertisers across key sectors, including travel, hospitality, luxury, retail, and even FMCG, are reportedly reassessing their media investments. According to top media agencies, numerous live and upcoming campaigns have already been postponed by major advertisers. The outdoor advertising sector has been among the first to feel the impact, particularly with disruptions to air travel and the closure of some northern airports.
Anil Solanki, a senior media strategist, noted that during periods of national tension, brands typically adopt a more reserved stance, toning down celebratory or humorous messaging to align with the prevailing patriotic or empathetic mood. Categories heavily reliant on consumer confidence and macroeconomic stability, such as automotive, travel, and luxury retail, are often the first to re-evaluate their ad spends during such unrest.
While geopolitical stress often leads to a surge in news consumption across both television and digital platforms, this increase in viewership doesn’t automatically translate to higher advertising revenue. Shashi Sinha, CEO of IPG Mediabrands India, pointed out that with continuous coverage of conflict, TV inventory can shrink, and many brands prefer to avoid advertising alongside sensitive content.
The advertising industry, which was previously gearing up for a strong fiscal year buoyed by an improved GDP outlook and pro-business developments, is now bracing for potential indirect economic consequences of the India-Pakistan tensions. Concerns about retaliatory actions, disruptions to trade routes, and potential inflationary pressures are making brands more risk-averse.
The CFO of a leading e-commerce platform warned that fluctuations in oil prices or the rupee could impact everything from logistics to digital ad imports, further influencing advertising budgets.
Despite the cautious sentiment, veteran adman Dr. Sandeep Goyal, MD of Rediffusion, urged marketers to avoid knee-jerk reactions. He suggested that as long as markets remain relatively stable without signs of panic, most brands might maintain a “business as usual” approach for the time being, deeming any panic as potentially counterproductive.
However, the prevailing sentiment suggests that the heightened geopolitical tensions will likely lead to a temporary pullback in advertising expenditure as brands navigate the uncertain landscape.
Key Highlights:
- Rising India-Pakistan tensions are expected to cause a 5-10% dip in India’s AdEx for H1 2025.
- Brands across sectors are pausing high-visibility media campaigns due to the uncertainty.
- Outdoor advertising and sectors like travel and luxury retail are particularly affected.
- While news consumption is up, ad spends on news channels may not increase.
- The industry is also concerned about potential broader economic impacts.