Vodafone Idea (Vi) is bracing for a significant blow to its recovery journey. Market trackers estimate that the telecom operator will lose approximately 3.5 million subscribers in the October–December 2025 quarter (Q3 FY26). This sharp decline effectively snaps a nine-month streak where the company had successfully narrowed its subscriber churn.

Despite Vi’s aggressive efforts to stabilize its base—limiting losses to just 0.5 million in Q1 and 1 million in Q2—the projected Q3 numbers indicate a worrying trend reversal.

The spike in user exits comes at a time when Vi has been significantly boosting its capital expenditure. The company recently initiated its 5G rollout, currently live in 29 cities across 17 circles, and has added a substantial number of towers to enhance its 4G coverage.

However, analysts note that these improvements are being overshadowed by the rapid expansion of competitors.

• Reliance Jio: Projected to add 8.4 million users in Q3, potentially crossing the 515 million subscriber mark.
• Bharti Airtel: Expected to gain 3.3 million subscribers, driven by high-value postpaid migrations and 5G dominance.

While the quantity of users is falling, the quality of the remaining base is showing marginal improvement. Vi’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to edge up to approximately ₹169–₹170, compared to ₹167 in the previous quarter. This growth is attributed to a gradually improving subscriber mix and recent network investments that encourage higher data usage.

The coming months are critical for Vi’s survival. While the government has provided massive relief by freezing AGR payments until FY30, the company still faces a net loss projection of ₹6,987 crore for the quarter.

To regain its competitive edge, industry experts emphasize that Vi must:

1. Accelerate 5G Deployment: Move beyond the initial 29 cities to match the nationwide footprints of rivals.
2. Monetize 4G Upgrades: Convert its remaining 2G users to 4G/5G services more effectively.
3. Enhance Urban Retention: Counter the migration of high-value urban customers to more extensive 5G networks.

Key Highlights:

• Subscriber Slump: Vi is projected to lose 3.5 million users in Q3 FY26, tripling the losses seen in the previous quarter.
• Trend Reversal: The decline ends a nine-month period of improvement, highlighting intense competition from Jio and Airtel.
• Network Status: Despite the losses, Vi has expanded 5G to 29 cities and seen a slight ARPU increase to ₹169.
• Financial Pressure: While government relief on AGR dues has provided breathing room, Vi still faces widening net losses and high churn.