India’s telecom and pay TV services sector is poised for a significant transformation over the next five years. According to the latest ‘India Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report’ by GlobalData, the industry revenue is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6%, rising from $46.3 billion in 2024 to $61.9 billion by 2029.
This growth is primarily fueled by a surge in mobile data and fixed broadband demand, even as traditional voice services and pay TV segments face a steady decline due to shifting consumer preferences toward digital alternatives.
While traditional mobile voice revenue is expected to dip—largely due to the popularity of OTT-based communication and unlimited calling bundles—the data segment is booming. Mobile data revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% through 2029.
Key Drivers for Mobile Expansion:
- 5G Dominance: By 2029, 5G subscriptions are expected to account for 59.4% of total mobile users, surpassing 4G by 2027.
- Premium Plans: Telcos are increasingly introducing high-ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) tiered 5G packages.
- Network Expansion: Continued rollouts by leaders like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, alongside the recent 5G entry of Vodafone Idea, are accelerating adoption.
The fixed communication segment is seeing a clear divide. While fixed voice revenue declines, fixed broadband is thriving on the back of high-speed fiber and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA).
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, notes that the push for FTTH/B (Fiber to the Home/Building) and the introduction of 5G FWA services—such as Jio AirFiber and Airtel Xstream AirFiber—are critical for reaching areas with limited fiber infrastructure. These technologies are providing high-capacity internet to both homes and businesses nationwide.
| Segment | Revenue Trend (2024-2029) | Primary Growth Driver |
| Mobile Data | 10.6% CAGR (Growth) | 5G Adoption & Premium Plans |
| Fixed Broadband | Consistent Growth | Fiber Expansion & 5G FWA |
| Pay TV | Consistent Decline | Migration to OTT Video Services |
| Mobile Voice | Decline | OTT Messaging & Free Bundles |
A significant finding in the report is the continued struggle of the Pay TV market. Revenues in this segment are expected to shrink as more Indian households “cut the cord” in favor of OTT video services. Both Cable TV and DTH (Direct-to-Home) subscriptions are losing ground, leading to a decline in aggregate pay TV ARPU.
The report concludes that Reliance Jio is set to maintain its leadership across both mobile and fixed broadband sectors through 2029. Its extensive 4G/5G footprint and the aggressive nationwide expansion of JioFiber position the operator as the dominant force in India’s high-speed digital ecosystem.
Key Highlights:
- Revenue Milestone: India’s telecom and pay TV revenue will reach $61.9 billion by 2029, growing at a 6% CAGR from $46.3 billion in 2024.
- 5G Takeover: 5G is expected to surpass 4G by 2027, eventually accounting for nearly 60% of all mobile subscriptions in India by 2029.
- OTT Impact: Traditional Pay TV and mobile voice revenues are declining as consumers migrate to streaming platforms and internet-based communication.
- Jio’s Dominance:Reliance Jio is projected to lead the market in both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions through 2029, supported by its massive fiber and 5G networks.