Reliance Jio is positioned for robust financial growth over the next few years, according to a new report from global brokerage firm Jefferies. The firm forecasts that Jio will achieve an 18 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in revenues and a 21 percent CAGR in EBITDA between Fiscal Year 2026 (FY26) and Fiscal Year 2028 (FY28).
Jefferies cites several key drivers underpinning this optimistic growth forecast:
- Rising Telecom Tariffs: An expected increase in mobile service tariffs will significantly boost revenue.
- Home Broadband Expansion: Sharp growth is anticipated in the home broadband business, primarily led by the deployment of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) technology.
- Enterprise Business: The scaling up of Jio’s enterprise business and the monetization of its comprehensive technology stack are expected to provide further support.
Reflecting its high confidence in this outlook, Jefferies raised its target EV/EBITDA multiple to 15x, assigning a 10% premium over Bharti Airtel. This change resulted in the brokerage rolling forward its valuation to December 2026 and increasing Jio’s estimated enterprise value (EV) to USD 180 billion by FY28.
The report emphasizes that Jio’s extensive, homegrown technology ecosystem provides a formidable competitive advantage. This ecosystem includes proprietary solutions for radios, network core, OSS/BSS (Operational Support Systems/Business Support Systems), and FWA.
- Global Market Opportunity: With global 5G penetration still low, Jio’s cost-efficient and scalable technology offerings are well-positioned to capture opportunities in the USD 121 billion global telecom technology market.
- Technology Investments: Over the past two years, Jio Platforms has significantly ramped up its technology investments, demonstrated by a 13-fold increase in patent filings and a four-fold rise in patent grants.
- Global Standards Leadership: The company has enhanced its role in shaping future global connectivity standards, increasing its participation in 3GPP standards for 5G and 6G by nearly seven times to 70.
- AI and Open Architecture: Jio is actively developing Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based solutions to optimize network performance and drive the adoption of Open Digital Architecture.
Jefferies noted that while the global network infrastructure market is highly concentrated, the shift toward open architectures and software-driven networks presents new opportunities for players like Jio. The telecom giant’s 5G technology stack, which is already proven at scale with over 200 million subscribers, offers a cost-effective and scalable solution that could unlock an additional layer of growth.
Reliance Jio’s integration of technological innovation, strategic tariff adjustments, and FWA expansion is poised to drive both domestic dominance and global technology monetization.
Key Highlights:
- Growth Forecast: Jefferies forecasts Reliance Jio will deliver an 18% CAGR in revenues and a 21% CAGR in EBITDA between FY26 and FY28, driven by rising mobile tariffs and FWA-led home broadband growth.
- Valuation Upgrade: The brokerage raised its target EV/EBITDA multiple to 15x (a 10% premium over Bharti Airtel) and increased Jio’s enterprise value estimate to USD 180 billion by FY28.
- Technology Advantage: Jio’s proprietary and scalable 5G technology stack (radios, network core, FWA) is seen as a formidable competitive advantage, well-positioned to capture a share of the USD 121 billion global telecom technology market.
- Innovation & Standards: Jio has significantly increased its patent filings and grants, and ramped up its participation in 3GPP standards for 5G and 6G, while also developing AI-based solutions and supporting Open Digital Architecture.